Editor’s note: This is the Tuesday, Sept. 21 edition of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from reporter J.P. Hoornstra. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
In the April 2019 issue of the journal Management Science, a study titled “Process Flexibility in Baseball: The Value of Positional Flexibility” promoted a once-novel thought. “We discover that top [baseball] teams can attribute at least one to two wins per season to flexibility alone,” the co-authors wrote, “generally as a result of long subchains in the infield or outfield.” The co-authors? Timothy Chan and Doug Fearing, whom Andrew Friedman hired to run the Dodgers’ research and development team in 2015.
Under Friedman and Fearing, the Dodgers liberally deployed players with any iota of defensive flexibility around the field. Their model shattered the antiquated notion of replacing a first baseman with a first baseman, a shortstop with a shortstop, etc. – both when injuries arose at midseason and when assessing free agents every winter. This added immense value to the careers of gifted athletes like Chris Taylor, whom I profiled in this space yesterday. Those players gave the Dodgers – reportedly – 1-2 wins per season in return.
Today’s newsletter is about Corey Seager. As a Dodger, Seager has played 5,539 innings in the field between the regular season and postseason. All but 43-2/3 of those innings have come at shortstop. He hasn’t spent an inning at third base – Seager’s only other position as a professional – since 2015. He is not a versatile fielder.
He is, however, the best-hitting shortstop in baseball (by WRC+) not named Fernando Tatís Jr. since his 2015 debut. Seager, 27, is also a free agent once the World Series concludes. How will the Dodgers assess his value in a crowded market for shortstops? Will they even be comparing him to other shortstops? Let’s dive in.
WHY SEAGER STAYS A DODGER
Seager does the big things well. He gets on base. He hits for power. He doesn’t strike out much for a guy who hits the ball as hard as he does, and his walk rate has risen quite a bit in 2021. You’d really be missing the forest for the trees to nitpick Seager’s shortcomings as a hitter.
When Seager was hit by a pitch earlier this season and fractured his hand, he spent the next 2½ months on the injured list. The Dodgers then tried to do what they have often done well. They gave the shortstop position to Gavin Lux, a middle infielder whom they drafted in the first round in 2016. It didn’t go well. Lux had a .656 OPS when he played his final game at shortstop, and his defense didn’t do enough to compensate for his shortcomings at the plate.
Finding dangerous hitters from the left side of the plate has been a challenge for the Dodgers this season. A healthy Cody Bellinger and Edwin Rios would help, but the Dodgers haven’t had either of those luxuries. Seager and Max Muncy have been left to shoulder the burden of balancing the lineup. How much can the Dodgers count on from Bellinger (and Rios) in 2022? The uncertainty therein might be the best reason to re-sign Seager after this season.
I’ll get to his defensive shortcomings soon, but consider for a moment the merits of moving Seager to third base, assuming he’s willing. Justin Turner, 36, is the incumbent at the position. He’s signed through next season. Right now he is an average third baseman by OAA, and slightly below average according to DRS and UZR. (It’s a rare gift when the defensive numbers align that well.) It’s worth asking whether 1) Turner is best used as a third baseman from start to finish in 2022 and 2) if there’s a better in-house option to replace him. Prospect Miguel Vargas might be two years away from playing the position at the major league level, and he seems closer than Kody Hoese at the moment. If Seager can play an average third base in 2022, the Dodgers wouldn’t miss a beat on defense.
The Dodgers would prefer not to carry two average-to-below-average fielders on one side of the infield. Slide Seager over to third base and you can plug in a rangier, more athletic shortstop from within the current 26-man roster.
That, of course, brings us to …
WHY SEAGER DOESN’T STAY A DODGER
Trea Turner isn’t eligible to become a free agent until after the 2022 season. He’s currently playing second base out of necessity – Seager is a shortstop, you see. Trea Turner isn’t the best thing since Ozzie Smith with a glove, but he’s arguably got more range than any of his contemporaries at the shortstop position. His athleticism suggests he’ll hold up better in the long run than Seager will. If the Dodgers must choose which of the two players is re-signed to be the primary shortstop, Turner gets the edge based on his defense alone.
Turner and Seager are different sorts of offensive talents, but the value they’ve provided over the course of their careers is nearly even. That’s why it helps immensely that Turner is the kind of versatile defender the Dodgers like. In the past, he’s played center field too.
Mookie Betts will earn $365 million over 12 years in large part because he can fill in at second base and center field when he isn’t playing right field. That versatility just isn’t part of Seager’s portfolio. Go back and read Doug Fearing’s thesis. Now try to imagine the Dodgers backing up the Brinks truck for a player who has been locked into one position the last five years.
This is where it’s useful to trot out Friedman’s maxim about acting rationally on every free agent. Maybe Seager’s steady clubhouse presence, and being a homegrown Dodger, and small-sample-size postseason heroics count for more than logic suggests. Maybe the front office will just have to use its imagination a little more to optimize a roster with Seager locked in to a long-term deal.
At 27, Seager is the kind of player who can and should command a contract of five years or longer as a free agent. If Scott Boras can get 13 years for Bryce Harper, I’m not sure where you set the floor on Seager’s next contract. It’s the length of that deal, more than the money, that could give the Dodgers pause.
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Dodgers’ pending free agents, Part II: Corey Seager - OCRegister
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